It's Game Time!!!

Finally! The time that we've all (or at least basketball junkies) been waiting for. The Lakers will be getting their rings tonight meaning the start of the NBA Season. That only means fantasy basketball is also starting (duh!).

Like most experts are saying, this season seems to be a 4 or 5 team battle for the championship. The favorite has to be the reigning champs, but there hasn't been a repeat champion since 2001. History is on the Lakers side though as they were the last team to go back-to-back. They'll face stiff competition from Western Conference rival, the San Antonio Spurs. If there's ever a year the Spurs can do it, this has to be it since their roster is aging rapidly.

For quite some time, it's always been about the Western Conference, but the East certainly have some beasts to reckon with. Runner-up Orlando Magic are back to make another run with Vince Carter in town; Boston Celtics, the last team to beat the Lakers in the Finals are reloaded with Rasheed Wallace; and the Cleveland Cavaliers traded for the former Laker, Shaquille O'Neal, to go along with LBJ. It's going to be fun watching these teams beat up on each other.

Other rising teams that will be interesting to watch are the Portland Trailblazers (seems like it's being said every year) with another year of experience and hopefully, a healthy Greg Oden; the Washington Wizards with Agent 0 returning; and the Phoenix Suns returning to their up-tempo-style offense. I don't think any of these teams have what it takes to compete for the championship, but for the sake of entertainment, they'll sure be fun to watch.

On with the fantasy news...

It's too early to be looking at schedules, but that's what I'll do for this week, for beginners. If you're in a weekly league, this is extremely important as you try to maximize the amount of games. Later on in the season, I'll get into more details about the importance of schedules if you're in a daily league. For now, one week won't kill you in fantasy basketball as it can in fantasy football. It's a MUCH longer season, and easier to recover from. The majority of the teams play three games this week, except for the teams below.

2-games
Golden State Warriors
Indian Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks
Utah Jazz

4-games
Boston Celtics
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Clippers
Portland Trail Blazers

Week 1 surprise picks:
1) Leandro Barbosa-The Suns will look to open the gate running, and with J-Rich gone for a couple games Barbosa will have plenty of minutes to run.

2) Ryan Anderson-Rashard Lewis is suspended, and it looks like Anderson will get the starting nod over Brandon Bass

3) Channing Frye-Besides from the Suns running out of the gate, they also play relatively weaker teams (Clippers, Warriors & T-Wolves).


(L-R: Leandro Barbosa, Ryan Anderson, Channing Frye)

Last, but not least, good luck to you all!! Thanks for continuing to follow the blog, and be sure to follow throughout the season for frequent updates!

It's game time!

Team-by-Team (Deep) Sleepers

I know I wrote a previous post listing the Top-10 sleepers, but that was then, this is now. Preseason is over, so there are more games to judge by. Here are my predictions on the best potential sleepers for each team. I wouldn't necessarily draft all these guys unless you're in a deep league (14+ teams), but I would certainly keep them on my watch list once the season begins.

ATLANTA HAWKS-Jamal Crawford
No real sleeper on this team. Crawford is a Joe Johnson or Mike Bibby injury away from getting a chance to put up nice numbers.

BOSTON CELTICS-Marquis Daniels
Some teams have exposed Rondo's size in the past. Doc Rivers now has a bigger guard who can handle the ball to prevent that from happening. He'll also try to limit minutes to his veterans allowing Daniels, possibly, to put up some stats.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS-D.J. Augustin
After the injury to Raja Bell, D.J. Augustin's stock has risen dramatically. He's one of Larry Brown's favorite players on the team, and the team's future point guard. Augustin will get plenty of minutes, and a potential trade of Felton will only skyrocket his value.

CHICAGO BULLS-John Salmons
The Bulls are going to need to replace Ben Gordon's 20 ppg. Salmons is the guy who can do that whether he starts or not. Averaged 18.3 ppg with Gordon, so a slight increase won't be a surprise. Can also distribute the ball, and will help Derrick Rose with that.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS-Anthony Parker
Parker will be in the starting lineup replacing Delonte West. His main job is to play defense, but showed his ability to score in Toronto two years ago. With LBJ creating open looks, Parker could be a nice sleeper for treys and steals.

DALLAS MAVERICKS-Drew Gooden
Gooden won't be in the starting lineup every night as it will vary based on match ups. Whether he's starting or not, he figures to get plenty of minutes. Starting will be a bonus to Gooden owners. Mavs are looking to increase the tempo, and Gooden gets up-and-down the court much better than Dampier.

DENVER NUGGETS-J.R. Smith/Chris Anderson
With Smith in the starting lineup, that means he'll get even more shots with Melo' drawing double-teams and Billups creating open looks. His FG% may hurt even more than last year with the increased attempts, but the potential of him getting hot on a week-by-week basis can pay huge dividends. Plenty of points, treys and steals from Smithy. Anderson was a nice mid-season acquisition last season. He figures to do the same this season being a specialist in blocks, with some rebounds.

DETROIT PISTONS-Kwame Brown
Yes, I said it...Kwame Brown! as Stephen A. Smith famously went off after the trade happened. Now, don't have high expectations from Kwame, but he can help in a couple of categories- FG%, rebounds and blocks. Detroit lacks big men, so they'll turn to Brown to be a presence in the middle.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS-Anthony Morrow
I've mentioned several times before that I expect a big season from Anthony Randolph (as had plenty of others), so I'll go with Anthony Morrow. He's had a great summer league and preseason putting the ball in the basket. That's more than enough to find some time on the court in the Nellie system. The Nellie system also comes with unexpected changes. One night, Morrow could start, the next night he could see 10-minutes. Ultimately, I think he finds enough minutes to make an impact on a fantasy roster. Threes and points are his specialties.

HOUSTON ROCKETS-Kyle Lowry
Aaron Brooks is slated to be the starter. His inconsistencies scare me, which could pave the way for increased minutes for Lowry. Lowry is the better play maker than Brooks, and also contributes to more stat categories. This could be a position battle to watch for once the season kicks off.

INDIANA PACERS-Brandon Rush/Roy Hibbert
Brandon Rush is the starting shooting guard while Mike Dunleavy rehabs. As I've said before, I believe he'll start the entire season after having to shut Dunleavy down multiple times last season. Rush will get you threes, points and steals. If you're looking for the remaining other stats (FG%, rebounds & blocks), look no further than Rush's teammate Roy Hibbert. Hibbert's impressive preseason play has him on the brink of claiming the starting job. It's only a matter of time that he'll take it away from Jeff Foster for sure during the season. Hibbert provides a defensive presence the Pacers have lacked the past couple of years. I'd go with Hibbert before Rush.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS-Rasual Butler
Butler isn't one of those flashy players, but does a solid job on the court. Right now, it looks like he could take over the starting small forward spot from Al Thornton. Butler does a little of everything, so think of him as fantasy "glue" player. He will have occasional nights where he goes on a scoring spree.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS-Shannon Brown/Jordan Farmar
Hard to find a sleeper on such a talented squad. The back-up point guards could see increased minutes to help keep Derek Fisher fresh for the playoffs. Whoever wins the job may have limited value. I like Brown to receive more minutes than Farmar because he's more athletic and can guard bigger guards. His shot has looked very good in the preseason.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES-Mike Conley
AI should be coming off the bench the whole year, so Conley's value shouldn't be impacted too much. He's been inconsistent in the preseason, but has the ability to post versatile stat lines. His shot has improved a little to be somewhat of a threat. A nice #3 point guard you could add late in your draft to have on your roster.

MIAMI HEAT-Mario Chalmers
I wanted to put Michael Beasley on here, but that wouldn't be going out on a limb much. Chalmers doesn't put up exciting fantasy numbers, but is usually consistent on what he delivers. There isn't much behind him so he'll get plenty of run as the starter. Another year with Wade only means more trust from him. I added him late in my draft after drafting Wade, only to kind of protect myself from any injury issue DWade might suffer.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS-Brandon Jennings/Hakim Warrick
I believe Jennings will eventually take over Luke Ridnour's starting spot. Jennings is an interesting rookie coming over after a year overseas instead of college. He's one of the quickest players in the league so the steals will be there. His shot, however, isn't one of the prettiest. Lets hope Michael Redd will give him some shooting lessons. He'll be a nice source for assists and steals at the expense of FG% and turnovers. Hakim Warrick is in the perfect situation to try to earn a nice contract next summer...starting at small forward with no firepower in Milwaukee. Look for a solid year from Warrick so long as he's starting. The blocks will come over time since Andrew Bogut doesn't block too many shots.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES-Corey Brewer/Ryan Gomes
Both players saw their values jump once the news broke that Kevin Love would be missing 6-8 weeks after hand surgery. I really think this is the year for Corey Brewer after getting injured last year. He's not the greatest shooter, but provides a very versatile stat line. He'll be leaned on to provide perimeter scoring to ease the pressure off rookie Johnny Flynn, and Brewer has always been a defensive stud going back to his days at Florida. On the other hand, Ryan Gomes value comes back. He won't do much outside of what he's been doing the past two years, so you know what you're going to get from him (12 pts, 5 rebs & 1 3ptm). He'll have nights where he scores a bunch. Brewer is obviously the more upside pick. Take him if you want to gamble, or take Gomes if you want to play it safe.

NEW JERSEY NETS-Courtney Lee
There are plenty to choose from in New Jersey (Yi Jianlian or Terrence Williams), but I love Lee. He's always been an underdog his entire career (even back at Western Kentucky when they made their run in the NCAA tourney) to being under-appreciated in Orlando (yes, he did miss that wide open alley-oop in Game 2 of the Finals). For being a rookie last year, he was able to bring stability to the shooting guard position when the Magic couldn't find anyone. Now that he's starting all over in New Jersey, Lee is out to show Orlando made a mistake. Lee and Harris will be a nice backcourt combo for years to come.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS-Julian Wright
If Julian Wright gets the starting nod over Peja, Wright can help in the energy categories...steals and blocks. He'll also provide some treys as CP3 will need shooters to space the floor to penetrate. Peja replaces Wright here if starts as he'll be looking to rebound after a injury-plagued year. He's still one of the deadliest shooters when healthy.

NEW YORK KNICKS-Wilson Chandler
Started strong last season, but faded away. With a season under his belt in the D'Antoni system, I expect another great season from Chandler. I'm really surprised to be seeing him go around the 8th/9th round when he has round 4/5 value. He provides an all-around game similar to Phoenix version of Shawn Marion. Chandler won't be as great as the Matrix was, but a mini-Marion isn't out of the question. It also helps being in the D'Antoni system where just about any player that plays puts up good numbers.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER-Etan Thomas
Nenad Krstic figures to be the starting center. However, the Thunder lack a true defensive presence inside. Thomas could help that situation when splitting minutes with Krstic. He's not really an offensive threat, and will get his points by cleaning up the mess. With Westbrook and Durant jacking shots up, there will be plenty of bricks to clean up.

ORLANDO MAGIC-Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson
It all depends on how Orlando plays it out. If they go big, Bass is the guy to watch for. If they go small to space the floor out for Dwight Howard, Anderson is the guy. Bass was a rebounding machine in Dallas when he was on the court, and provided great FG%. Anderson is a nice throw-in piece they got in their summer trade for Vince Carter. This guy can shoot the ball and can be very valuable since Orlando loves to surround Dwight with shooters along the perimeter. I'd watch for the direction Stan Van Gundy goes. My guess is Anderson.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS-Lou Williams
Bye bye Andre Miller, hello Lou Williams. Williams is nothing like the player Miller is, so don't expect the same contribution from him. Lou-Lou is a scorer who can put the ball in the hoop. Because he'll get as many minutes as he can handle, Williams will have a career year. Assists will eventually come, but will probably have a low FG% and higher turnovers.

PHOENIX SUNS-Channing Frye
Frye was another late preseason bloomer. Phoenix love big men who can spread the floor; Frye does exactly that. With Robin Lopez injured, Frye will be the starting center/power forward, however you want list Amare' as. Threes and rebounds are what he'll provide, a couple blocks will come with the minutes he receives. Just don't count on him as being one of your true centers.

SACRAMENTO KINGS-Jason Thompson
Spencer Hawes received his fair share of hoop-la, and it was supposed to be Jason Thompson as well. That was until a rookie by the name of Tyreke Evans opened the eyes of many with his all-around play. So, instead of Evans being on here, I'll put Thompson to give him some love. Thompson is a nice late-round pick to boost your FG%, rebounds and points. Blocks aren't quite what you want for a power forward, but he'll get a couple with the minutes he'll be receiving.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS-DeJuan Blair
After dropping to the second round, Blair is out to show the league why he should've gone in the first. Playing with a chip on his shoulder coupled with likely DNPs from Tim Duncan will give occasional value to Blair. You'll just have to guess right on when Timmy will get his rest. Blair is a rebounding machine and could help your team if Duncan's knee problems flair up at any point in the season. He'll get garbage points near the basket so his FG% will be up there as well.

TORONTO RAPTORS-Marco Belinelli
DeMar DeRozan is likely to start at shooting guard, but I think Belinelli will play at least half the game giving him value in deeper leagues. Belinelli can shoot with the best of them, and with two good playmakers in Toronto (Jose Calderon and Hedo Turkoglu) he should see plenty of open looks.

UTAH JAZZ-Ronnie Brewer
Ronnie Brewer was a nice waiver wire pickup last season, and could very well do the same this year. The injury to C.J. Miles and Kyle Korver will give increased minutes to Brewer. Brewer is a thief on defense and has occasional scoring outbursts. Steals are a hard category to get, so his value will go up. Look for him to be a late-round pick or keep a close eye on him if he's in your waiver wire.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS-Andray Blatche
With Antawn Jamison out 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury, look for Andray Blatche to fill in nicely for the all-star forward. I wouldn't have used a late draft pick on Blatche a week ago, but with the recent news of Jamison I would definitely use one. Those shoulder injuries can linger the entire year, so he's worth a spot with his potential. He'll be a nice source for rebounds and blocks. He's also very versatile when it comes to position eligibility.

One Man's Loss is Another Man's Gain

Throughout the season players will miss time through various reasons (via injuries, suspensions, personal leave). This opens the door for others to step up giving them short-term value, which could ultimately lead to long-term value depending on the situation. So far, we've seen a couple of significant injuries happen to key players during preseason, and we haven't forgotten about some of the suspensions handed out in the summer to others. Here are some guys that currently have short-term value and players for you to keep an eye out on.

Out: Kevin Love
In: Ryan Gomes
So much for Love's big season. He vowed to average a double-double this season, but that's going to have to wait 6-8 weeks meaning a mid-December return. I expected a big season out of him with the lack of depth in Minnesota. In steps Ryan Gomes who didn't have a bad year last season. Gomes will have some value while Love is out. Don't forget Al Jefferson is also dealing with an injury himself, so someone will have to do the scoring for Minnestoa.

Out: Mike Dunleavy
In: Brandon Rush
There's been several different timetables on Dunleavy's return to the lineup. I believe he'll be back in mid-December. Even when he returns, Indiana won't make the same mistake this season by rushing him into the lineup. Therefore, I see Rush starting most of the year, if not, the whole season giving him great value and a nice late-round pickup. Last season, Rush was one of the popular late season pickups as he can really score and provides a lot of treys.

Out: Antawn Jamison
In: Andray Blatche
Sucks to have drafted Jamison if you're one of the early-bird drafters. He's gone in the 2nd round in most drafts. His latest setback will drop him a round or two lower. Missing 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury scares me as it's one of those injuries that can linger throughout the season. I'd stay away from him. Andray Blatche is an interesting pickup. He can certainly get boards and blocks, but his offense is inconsistent. Either way, he's a poor man's Tyrus Thomas, and worth a late-round flier or a guy to keep an eye out on in the waiver wire.

Out: Rashard Lewis
In: Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson
Bass will have increased value for 10 games after Lewis is serving his serving his drug suspension. He'll be a nice short-term source for rebounds and high FG%. Outside of that, I don't see him offering much value unless Dwight Howard gets injured. Anderson is very intriguing if he ends up taking over the starting spot instead of Bass. Anderson is very similar to Lewis in respect to numbers. They both don't do much outside of getting a couple rebounds, points and treys. Whoever gets the starting nod is worth a last round pick, and can get cut once Lewis returns.

Out: Robin Lopez
In: Channing Frye
Channing Frye has certainly turned heads the last two weeks with his outstanding late preseason performances. He's demonstrated the ability to spread the floor by hitting threes. Because he can do that, he'll definitely see time with the type of offense the Suns play. Nash can and will find his shooters so he'll get many looks. He's a nice source for threes and rebounds.

Out: Jason Richardson
In: Leandro Barbosa
Okay, this isn't really enough time for Barbosa to make an impact, but J-Rich will still be missing 2-games. In the Suns offense, that could mean a lot. We've seen Barbosa explode when given enough minutes, so it's worth noting this suspension. I wouldn't go out to reach for Barbosa, just an added bonus for Barbosa owners.

Out: Francisco Garcia
In: Desmond Mason/Andres Nocioni
Garcia was going to be on my sleeper list until he had his unfortunate weight room accident causing him to miss at least four months. Unfortunately, I happened to have drafted him in one of my leagues. Sadly, like this post is called, one man's loss is another man's gain. Paul Westphal seems to be infatuated with Desmond Mason, all but giving him the starting spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if Nocioni received just as many minutes as Mason. If that's the case, Nocioni offers more fantasy value. Just keep an eye out for both.

Out: Raja Bell
In: D.J Augustin
Devastating news came to the Bobcats as Bell may miss the entire season. This paves the way for D.J Augustin to gain even more minutes. Augustin = scoring, 3s, steals. Not sure how the lineup would work with he and Felton in at the same time, but Augustin will definitely see more minutes. He's worth a late-round selection, and could prove to be a nice sleeper.

Out: J.R. Smith
In: Arron Afflalo
Smith is out of George Karl's doghouse (finally!...or at least for now), but couldn't escape the NBA's doghouse. He'll miss the first seven games of the season due to reckless driving. Arron Afflalo will take those seven starts. I don't see too much value owning him, as he'll be used more for his defensive specialties. He could be a nice source for steals if anything, but would look to one of the other guys mentioned above before aiming for Afflalo.

Top 10 Sleepers

Every year there's always a bunch of guys that are bound for stardom (via FA signing, trade, late season run). These guys are known as "sleepers" in the fantasy world. I define sleepers as guys who can push your team to the top in the later rounds of your draft. By no means should you rely on these players to carry your team. Also, fantasy players have a tendency to reach for sleepers. If you're reaching, they're not really considered sleepers anymore. Here is the list of Top 10 sleepers for this season.

1) Anthony Randolph (GSW)- SF/PF Probably the worst kept secret fantasy sleeper of the off-season. Started to get recognition at the end of last season putting up 15-10 w/ 1.5 stl and nearly 1 bpg in the month of April. He proved that it wasn't a fluke after his MVP performance in summer league. Randolph keeps moving up draft boards that he shouldn't be considered a sleeper anymore. It also doesn't hurt that he's in the Nellie system where everyone puts up good numbers when given the minutes.
Prediction: 17 ppg, 10 reb, 1.5 stl, 1.5 bpg

2) Tyrus Thomas (CHI)- SF/PF
Should start at PF for the young Chicago Bulls. This bodes really well for Tyrus Thomas as minutes will determine how much of a fantasy impact he'll have this season. He's averaging an astounding 3.3 bpg per 48 min. The sky's the limit for the young Thomas. T-squared is one of those players that will help your squad out in the energy categories (stls & blks)
Prediction: 13 ppg, 8 rbp, 1.5 spg, 2 bpg

3) Spencer Hawes (SAC)- C
The big man in the middle is another version of the departed Brad Miller, one of the reasons Sacramento didn't mind trading Miller away to Chicago. Hawes has all the tools Miller has plus a nice shooting touch from beyond the arc. Burst onto the fantasy radar towards the beginning of last season, but injuries hit him in the middle. He bounced back strong the last month to give owners one last look of what he'll do this season.
Prediction: 17 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.5 bpg

4) Jason Thompson (SAC)- PF
Another building block along with Hawes, I expect a good season from. He has the starting power forward locked up with injury prone Sean May backing him up. Plenty of minutes will be there for Thompson. Came onto the scene last season when the Kings were lacking big men thanks to the injuries/trade of Spencer Hawes and Brad Miller. The last two months of the season were an indication of what he'll put up this season. He developed more confidence and is primed for a breakout year.
Prediction: 14 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1 bpg

5) Thaddeus Young (PHI)- SF/PF
Young really took advantage of the minutes after Brand went down from injuries. Quietly took the starting role in Philly and put up some nice numbers. He demonstrated his ability to score with a high percentage as well as help out in other categories. With Brand back, his numbers will likely take a small hit, but he's gotta be a part of the 76ers future plans. He's only a Brand injury away from having a breakout year.
Prediction: 15 ppg, 6 rbg, 1.5 spg

6) Roy Hibbert (IND)- C
Dr. Hibbert has surely grabbed the attention of many during the preseason. After flirting with a triple-double (20 pts, 11 reb, 8 blks-yes, 8!!!!) in nearly 33 minutes, what's not to get excited about Hibbert? The Pacers lack presence in the middle with Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy (neither had more than 50 blocks last season). Hibbert could definitely change all of that this season. He could be a nice #2 center on fantasy squads once Hibbert takes over the starting spot...and it's only a matter of time before that happens.
Prediction: 11 ppg, 10 rpg, 2 bpg

7) Luis Scola (HOU)- PF/C
With the season ending injury to Yao Ming, there's no one left to play center for the Rockets. Luis Scola figures to start the year at center giving him every opportunity to put up some nice fantasy numbers. He's never had the defensive statistics, but that's because Yao Ming was there to clean up the mess. Yao's not there, so Scola will have to step it up. The Argentinean put up nice numbers against the Lakers in the playoffs last year after Yao went down, so you know he's capable. I expect a great season out of Scola as he'll be the man like he has been for his native Argentinean squad where he's the team MVP.
Prediction: 16 ppg, 10 rpg, 1 bpg

8) Mario Chalmers (MIA)- PG
Miami had no other true point guard on the roster up until the recent signing of Carlos Arroyo. However, Chalmers is the main man after developing a bond with Dwayne Wade. In his rookie campaign, the former Jayhawk averaged a solid 10 ppg with 5 apg. These numbers will likely increase a little with a year of experience under him. If you're a D-Wade owner, I would scoop Chalmers up just in case.
Prediction: 11ppg, 6 apg, 2 spg

9) Julian Wright (NOH)- SF/PF
Wright was a nice late-season pickup for many fantasy rosters after grabbing the starting SF spot. He looked to build on the late-season success after being named starting SF by Byron Scott in the preseason. However, he's looked completely lost, and it's not looking like he's locked up the starting position. He'll likely be the opening night starter, so Wright will have to turn it around quickly. Playing with CP3 can mean nice numbers as a starter. I would only use a late round pick on Wright, or not even draft him at all, but certainly keep him on your radar.
Prediction: 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 spg, 1 bpg (if he's the starter)

10) JaVale McGee (WAS)- C
McGee is one big man to watch out for especially if Brendan Haywood goes down with any type of injury. After watching him play this summer, McGee has the tools to be Marcus Camby type of player (without the jumper). He's REALLY long and is disruptive on the defensive end. McGee definitely won't be relied on to score as the Wizards have plenty of weapons, but he's a nice source for rebounds and blocks if he were to seize the starting center spot. He'll probably be a nice mid-season flier.
Prediction: 8 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 bpg


Others to keep an eye out for:
Hakim Warrick (MIL)- SF/PF
Marco Belinelli (TOR)- SG
Greg Oden (POR)- C
Yi Jianlian (NJN)- SF/PF