Sunday, October 25, 2009

Team-by-Team (Deep) Sleepers

I know I wrote a previous post listing the Top-10 sleepers, but that was then, this is now. Preseason is over, so there are more games to judge by. Here are my predictions on the best potential sleepers for each team. I wouldn't necessarily draft all these guys unless you're in a deep league (14+ teams), but I would certainly keep them on my watch list once the season begins.

ATLANTA HAWKS-Jamal Crawford
No real sleeper on this team. Crawford is a Joe Johnson or Mike Bibby injury away from getting a chance to put up nice numbers.

BOSTON CELTICS-Marquis Daniels
Some teams have exposed Rondo's size in the past. Doc Rivers now has a bigger guard who can handle the ball to prevent that from happening. He'll also try to limit minutes to his veterans allowing Daniels, possibly, to put up some stats.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS-D.J. Augustin
After the injury to Raja Bell, D.J. Augustin's stock has risen dramatically. He's one of Larry Brown's favorite players on the team, and the team's future point guard. Augustin will get plenty of minutes, and a potential trade of Felton will only skyrocket his value.

CHICAGO BULLS-John Salmons
The Bulls are going to need to replace Ben Gordon's 20 ppg. Salmons is the guy who can do that whether he starts or not. Averaged 18.3 ppg with Gordon, so a slight increase won't be a surprise. Can also distribute the ball, and will help Derrick Rose with that.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS-Anthony Parker
Parker will be in the starting lineup replacing Delonte West. His main job is to play defense, but showed his ability to score in Toronto two years ago. With LBJ creating open looks, Parker could be a nice sleeper for treys and steals.

DALLAS MAVERICKS-Drew Gooden
Gooden won't be in the starting lineup every night as it will vary based on match ups. Whether he's starting or not, he figures to get plenty of minutes. Starting will be a bonus to Gooden owners. Mavs are looking to increase the tempo, and Gooden gets up-and-down the court much better than Dampier.

DENVER NUGGETS-J.R. Smith/Chris Anderson
With Smith in the starting lineup, that means he'll get even more shots with Melo' drawing double-teams and Billups creating open looks. His FG% may hurt even more than last year with the increased attempts, but the potential of him getting hot on a week-by-week basis can pay huge dividends. Plenty of points, treys and steals from Smithy. Anderson was a nice mid-season acquisition last season. He figures to do the same this season being a specialist in blocks, with some rebounds.

DETROIT PISTONS-Kwame Brown
Yes, I said it...Kwame Brown! as Stephen A. Smith famously went off after the trade happened. Now, don't have high expectations from Kwame, but he can help in a couple of categories- FG%, rebounds and blocks. Detroit lacks big men, so they'll turn to Brown to be a presence in the middle.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS-Anthony Morrow
I've mentioned several times before that I expect a big season from Anthony Randolph (as had plenty of others), so I'll go with Anthony Morrow. He's had a great summer league and preseason putting the ball in the basket. That's more than enough to find some time on the court in the Nellie system. The Nellie system also comes with unexpected changes. One night, Morrow could start, the next night he could see 10-minutes. Ultimately, I think he finds enough minutes to make an impact on a fantasy roster. Threes and points are his specialties.

HOUSTON ROCKETS-Kyle Lowry
Aaron Brooks is slated to be the starter. His inconsistencies scare me, which could pave the way for increased minutes for Lowry. Lowry is the better play maker than Brooks, and also contributes to more stat categories. This could be a position battle to watch for once the season kicks off.

INDIANA PACERS-Brandon Rush/Roy Hibbert
Brandon Rush is the starting shooting guard while Mike Dunleavy rehabs. As I've said before, I believe he'll start the entire season after having to shut Dunleavy down multiple times last season. Rush will get you threes, points and steals. If you're looking for the remaining other stats (FG%, rebounds & blocks), look no further than Rush's teammate Roy Hibbert. Hibbert's impressive preseason play has him on the brink of claiming the starting job. It's only a matter of time that he'll take it away from Jeff Foster for sure during the season. Hibbert provides a defensive presence the Pacers have lacked the past couple of years. I'd go with Hibbert before Rush.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS-Rasual Butler
Butler isn't one of those flashy players, but does a solid job on the court. Right now, it looks like he could take over the starting small forward spot from Al Thornton. Butler does a little of everything, so think of him as fantasy "glue" player. He will have occasional nights where he goes on a scoring spree.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS-Shannon Brown/Jordan Farmar
Hard to find a sleeper on such a talented squad. The back-up point guards could see increased minutes to help keep Derek Fisher fresh for the playoffs. Whoever wins the job may have limited value. I like Brown to receive more minutes than Farmar because he's more athletic and can guard bigger guards. His shot has looked very good in the preseason.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES-Mike Conley
AI should be coming off the bench the whole year, so Conley's value shouldn't be impacted too much. He's been inconsistent in the preseason, but has the ability to post versatile stat lines. His shot has improved a little to be somewhat of a threat. A nice #3 point guard you could add late in your draft to have on your roster.

MIAMI HEAT-Mario Chalmers
I wanted to put Michael Beasley on here, but that wouldn't be going out on a limb much. Chalmers doesn't put up exciting fantasy numbers, but is usually consistent on what he delivers. There isn't much behind him so he'll get plenty of run as the starter. Another year with Wade only means more trust from him. I added him late in my draft after drafting Wade, only to kind of protect myself from any injury issue DWade might suffer.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS-Brandon Jennings/Hakim Warrick
I believe Jennings will eventually take over Luke Ridnour's starting spot. Jennings is an interesting rookie coming over after a year overseas instead of college. He's one of the quickest players in the league so the steals will be there. His shot, however, isn't one of the prettiest. Lets hope Michael Redd will give him some shooting lessons. He'll be a nice source for assists and steals at the expense of FG% and turnovers. Hakim Warrick is in the perfect situation to try to earn a nice contract next summer...starting at small forward with no firepower in Milwaukee. Look for a solid year from Warrick so long as he's starting. The blocks will come over time since Andrew Bogut doesn't block too many shots.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES-Corey Brewer/Ryan Gomes
Both players saw their values jump once the news broke that Kevin Love would be missing 6-8 weeks after hand surgery. I really think this is the year for Corey Brewer after getting injured last year. He's not the greatest shooter, but provides a very versatile stat line. He'll be leaned on to provide perimeter scoring to ease the pressure off rookie Johnny Flynn, and Brewer has always been a defensive stud going back to his days at Florida. On the other hand, Ryan Gomes value comes back. He won't do much outside of what he's been doing the past two years, so you know what you're going to get from him (12 pts, 5 rebs & 1 3ptm). He'll have nights where he scores a bunch. Brewer is obviously the more upside pick. Take him if you want to gamble, or take Gomes if you want to play it safe.

NEW JERSEY NETS-Courtney Lee
There are plenty to choose from in New Jersey (Yi Jianlian or Terrence Williams), but I love Lee. He's always been an underdog his entire career (even back at Western Kentucky when they made their run in the NCAA tourney) to being under-appreciated in Orlando (yes, he did miss that wide open alley-oop in Game 2 of the Finals). For being a rookie last year, he was able to bring stability to the shooting guard position when the Magic couldn't find anyone. Now that he's starting all over in New Jersey, Lee is out to show Orlando made a mistake. Lee and Harris will be a nice backcourt combo for years to come.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS-Julian Wright
If Julian Wright gets the starting nod over Peja, Wright can help in the energy categories...steals and blocks. He'll also provide some treys as CP3 will need shooters to space the floor to penetrate. Peja replaces Wright here if starts as he'll be looking to rebound after a injury-plagued year. He's still one of the deadliest shooters when healthy.

NEW YORK KNICKS-Wilson Chandler
Started strong last season, but faded away. With a season under his belt in the D'Antoni system, I expect another great season from Chandler. I'm really surprised to be seeing him go around the 8th/9th round when he has round 4/5 value. He provides an all-around game similar to Phoenix version of Shawn Marion. Chandler won't be as great as the Matrix was, but a mini-Marion isn't out of the question. It also helps being in the D'Antoni system where just about any player that plays puts up good numbers.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER-Etan Thomas
Nenad Krstic figures to be the starting center. However, the Thunder lack a true defensive presence inside. Thomas could help that situation when splitting minutes with Krstic. He's not really an offensive threat, and will get his points by cleaning up the mess. With Westbrook and Durant jacking shots up, there will be plenty of bricks to clean up.

ORLANDO MAGIC-Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson
It all depends on how Orlando plays it out. If they go big, Bass is the guy to watch for. If they go small to space the floor out for Dwight Howard, Anderson is the guy. Bass was a rebounding machine in Dallas when he was on the court, and provided great FG%. Anderson is a nice throw-in piece they got in their summer trade for Vince Carter. This guy can shoot the ball and can be very valuable since Orlando loves to surround Dwight with shooters along the perimeter. I'd watch for the direction Stan Van Gundy goes. My guess is Anderson.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS-Lou Williams
Bye bye Andre Miller, hello Lou Williams. Williams is nothing like the player Miller is, so don't expect the same contribution from him. Lou-Lou is a scorer who can put the ball in the hoop. Because he'll get as many minutes as he can handle, Williams will have a career year. Assists will eventually come, but will probably have a low FG% and higher turnovers.

PHOENIX SUNS-Channing Frye
Frye was another late preseason bloomer. Phoenix love big men who can spread the floor; Frye does exactly that. With Robin Lopez injured, Frye will be the starting center/power forward, however you want list Amare' as. Threes and rebounds are what he'll provide, a couple blocks will come with the minutes he receives. Just don't count on him as being one of your true centers.

SACRAMENTO KINGS-Jason Thompson
Spencer Hawes received his fair share of hoop-la, and it was supposed to be Jason Thompson as well. That was until a rookie by the name of Tyreke Evans opened the eyes of many with his all-around play. So, instead of Evans being on here, I'll put Thompson to give him some love. Thompson is a nice late-round pick to boost your FG%, rebounds and points. Blocks aren't quite what you want for a power forward, but he'll get a couple with the minutes he'll be receiving.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS-DeJuan Blair
After dropping to the second round, Blair is out to show the league why he should've gone in the first. Playing with a chip on his shoulder coupled with likely DNPs from Tim Duncan will give occasional value to Blair. You'll just have to guess right on when Timmy will get his rest. Blair is a rebounding machine and could help your team if Duncan's knee problems flair up at any point in the season. He'll get garbage points near the basket so his FG% will be up there as well.

TORONTO RAPTORS-Marco Belinelli
DeMar DeRozan is likely to start at shooting guard, but I think Belinelli will play at least half the game giving him value in deeper leagues. Belinelli can shoot with the best of them, and with two good playmakers in Toronto (Jose Calderon and Hedo Turkoglu) he should see plenty of open looks.

UTAH JAZZ-Ronnie Brewer
Ronnie Brewer was a nice waiver wire pickup last season, and could very well do the same this year. The injury to C.J. Miles and Kyle Korver will give increased minutes to Brewer. Brewer is a thief on defense and has occasional scoring outbursts. Steals are a hard category to get, so his value will go up. Look for him to be a late-round pick or keep a close eye on him if he's in your waiver wire.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS-Andray Blatche
With Antawn Jamison out 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury, look for Andray Blatche to fill in nicely for the all-star forward. I wouldn't have used a late draft pick on Blatche a week ago, but with the recent news of Jamison I would definitely use one. Those shoulder injuries can linger the entire year, so he's worth a spot with his potential. He'll be a nice source for rebounds and blocks. He's also very versatile when it comes to position eligibility.

No comments:

Post a Comment